30″ of snow could fall in Colorado with three winter storms expected

At long last, a shift in the weather pattern should start to bring more consistent snow to Colorado as mid-February starts to hit.

A first wave of snow is expected to start in northern Colorado on February 10, pushing south as it continues into February 14. By the time snow stops falling, decent accumulation should span most mountainous regions of the state. According to Pivotal Weather widespread totals between seven and nine inches can be expected – though that might be a conservative estimate.

Snowfall through February 14. Map: Pivotal Weather; Data: ECMWF-AIFS

After that first wave of snow, more is expected on February 16, continuing into the following day. This round of snow should drop similar totals in the seven to nine-inch range on many peaks, as well. By this point, peaks in the Aspen area, Steamboat Springs, and those north of Durango should have accumulated around 14 to 16 total inches of snow – again an estimate that may be on the conservative side.

Snowfall through February 17. Map: Pivotal Weather; Data: ECMWF-AIFS

A third round of snow should then start during the early hours of February 19, with on-and-off snow expected through at least February 23. By this point, San Juan peaks north of Durango should have the most accumulation – about 32 inches of snow between the first wave of snow that starts February 10 and then. Meanwhile, the Flat Tops, the Sangre de Cristos, the Elks (near Aspen), and the Park Range (near Steamboat Springs, should all have a two-week accumulation total of about 25 inches or above – and for the third time, this estimate also may be a bit on the conservative side.

Snowfall through February 23. Map: Pivotal Weather; Data: ECMWF-AIFS

Most Front Range cities should see some snow over this period, though totals should be relatively limited. Along the I-25 corridor, Colorado Springs and cities north of that should get between two and three inches, though more should land in the foothills to the west of these population centers.

As noted, more snow than the aforementioned estimates could end up falling in some localized areas. According to OpenSnow, Steamboat Resort, Crested Butte, and Silverton should all get about 12 inches of snow or more over the next five days – Steamboat leading the charge at about 15 inches of fresh snow. This OpenSnow prediction is moreso in line with the National Weather Service ‘high-end’ snowfall forecast, which depicts the potential for eight to 12-plus inches on some Colorado peaks through the morning of Thursday, February 12.

The National Weather Service ‘high-end’ snowfall forecast (10% chance) through February 12. Map National Weather Service.

As of February 9, Colorado’s statewide snowpack is still far below the norm for the date – 53 percent of what’s typical. Some specific regions are even drier – southwest Colorado, for example, is at about 44 percent of its region norm.

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