Gambling: Keeping bets simple: go with good pitcher, not with bad one
Monday’s MLB slate is one of the smallest of the season, having only three total games on the docket. Regardless, our job is to find betting angles, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.
The difference with baseball compared to other sports is how the spreads (run lines) are measured. Unlike in other sports where the size of a spread can vary, baseball’s spreads are defaulted to 1.5 runs, with the odds being juiced in one direction. This makes targeting games before all of the odds are up a bit easier, especially for these articles.
Below are my favorite two bets for Monday.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
The pick: Royals ML (good until +100)
At the time of this writing, the Royals have not announced a starting pitcher, but the pick here is more contingent on the Angels throwing Dylan Bundy on the mound than anything else. Bundy has gotten absolutely shelled in his 51.1 innings this season, allowing 53 hits and 12 home runs. While the Royals offense isn’t one of the more dangerous units in the MLB, they still have enough firepower in Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana and Whit Merrifield to do enough damage and squeak out a win against an exploitable opponent.
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox
The pick: Red Sox ML (-156, William Hill)
With my strategy in the aforementioned game being to attack exploitable pitching, my strategy here is to back a strong arm with the Red Sox. Nick Pivetta has been a bit of a revelation for the Red Sox this season, posting his lowest ERA (3.77) of his five-year career as well as the lowest home-run rate (1.6%), highest strikeout rate (27.4%), and lowest hard-contact rate (37.3%) of his career. He’s improved in virtually every category, and most importantly has been consistent from game to game with the improvements. This makes him an easy option to back against a Miami offense that ranks 23rd in runs per game (3.84).




