The Broncos are betting big that coach Sean Payton can get them to the Super Bowl and they can get him to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

But the millions committed last week on a new, five-year contract for Payton are chump change compared to a decision that could shape the franchise’s future for the next decade.

Is the Walton-Penner ownership group ready to push all its chips to the middle of the table with a wager that quarterback Bo Nix is more like Patrick Mahomes than Brock Purdy?

While Broncos Country is amped up, thinking this time it’s for real and its beloved team will make it all the way to the Super Bowl next February, that ain’t happening unless Nix stays upright on his surgically repaired ankle and proves to be a QB worthy of a $55 million annual salary.

“I’m thankful they want me back,” Payton said Thursday.

The well-deserved deal for a 62-year-old head coach that puts him under contract with the Broncos through 2030 put a conclusive end to any whispers that the promotion of Davis Webb to primary offensive play-caller might’ve been the first step in nudging Payton toward the door of Dove Valley headquarters.

The husband-wife ownership team of Carrie Walton Penner and Greg Penner has shown a proclivity to lavish millions on their NFL team as nonchalantly as regular peeps like us plunk down $12.97 at Walmart for an “It’s a Dad Thing” cap and mug set as a Father’s Day gift.

Let’s see. The new contract for Payton came on the heels of a deal for general manager George Paton. There was the championship-or-bust trade for receiver Jaylen Waddle, as well as that $5 million annual raise for cornerback Patrick Surtain II. And did we mention the billions from the Walmart family piggy bank Greg and Carrie want to spend on a spanking new stadium?

Payton trumpeted the triumvirate of ownership, general manager and coach being on the same championship page as a reason he feels so lucky to be working for the Broncos.

But it’s Nix who can punch Payton’s ticket to the Hall of Fame.

Only eight NFL coaches in league history have won more regular-season and playoff games than Payton, who has 194 victories on his resume.

The NFL, however, is ruled by quarterbacks. Now more than ever.

Sixteen long seasons have passed since a franchise quarterback named Drew Brees helped Payton win the lone league championship of his coaching career.

Has Nix proved himself yet to be as valuable as Brees?

No way.

When Payton looks at Nix, however, he sees the ability of a top-five quarterback in the league.

“It’s good to have a coach that believes in you,” Nix said during training camp last summer. “But also if he believes that then I know I’ve got a lot of work to do to get there.”

Nix then went out and won 14 games, earning Denver the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. He led Denver to the conference title game, which ended in a gut-wrenching 10-7 loss to New England full of what-if regrets, none that felt weightier than: How sweet would a trip to the Super Bowl have been if Nix hadn’t missed that game with a broken ankle?

In two seasons, Nix has conclusively shown himself to be a rock-solid NFL quarterback.

He doesn’t blink in the face of fourth-quarter adversity.

But Nix also has a nasty habit of ending offensive series as quickly as a 1-2-3 punt.

A truly elite quarterback doesn’t average 23.6 points per game, which ranked Denver a very mediocre 14th in the league last season.

J.K. Dobbins, not Nix, was the Broncos’ best offensive player before a foot injury ended the running back’s season in early November.

The championship window for this version of the Broncos might never be wider open than it is now, in no small part because the salary-cap hit on Nix’s rookie contract is a tad over $5 million in 2026 and a tad under $6 million in 2027.

After this season, however, Nix is eligible for a contract extension that could increase his current salary by 10 times.

The best thing that could happen to the Broncos would be for Nix to stay healthy and prove beyond a shadow of a doubt he’s their QB for the next decade.

From Vince Lombardi to Bill Belichick, we hold this truth to be self-evident: Legendary quarterbacks make legendary coaches. Not vice versa.

Our friend Kyle Shanahan is never going to win a championship as the head coach in San Francisco, so long as the Niners are paying for the mistake of giving Purdy $53 million per season on a contract they handed last spring to a quarterback who’s a fine game manager but no game-changer.

Is Payton right about Nix? The Broncos might win another Super Bowl and be the NFL’s next dominant team.

And if that’s the case, I look forward to Payton buying me a drink when he’s inducted into the Hall of Fame.