Colorado is seeing more drug-related death as the rest of the country sees less.   

Synthetic opioid fatalities have been falling nationwide since 2023 from a combination of federal enforcement efforts, state policies, and greater public awareness. This reduction is a major victory for the U.S., which has struggled with an explosion of synthetic opioid deaths since fentanyl presence boomed on American streets in the mid-2010s.   

Unfortunately, the national trend is not universal. Colorado’s fentanyl deaths are trending upward again — one of only a handful of states where fentanyl deaths are rising. Since December 2024, synthetic opioid overdose deaths in Colorado have grown by 17%, the third-fastest increase in the nation. By contrast, the national rate has fallen 21% over the same period.   

The trend is not isolated to Colorado. Some western states are experiencing the same thing. Only four other states have seen fentanyl deaths rise since late 2024: Arizona, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota.  

This marks an abrupt shift for Colorado after a period of trying to get a grip on the problem. It’s worth recapping the history.   

In 2019, the state legislature passed HB19-1263. Effectively, this made a low-level offense out of drug crimes that used to have stiffer penalties. Carrying less than four grams of any substance — heroin, meth, cocaine — was made a misdemeanor. Simultaneously, the state expanded treatment options.  

Then the state and nation saw a massive uptick in fentanyl-related deaths. Public outcry resulted as fentanyl’s insidiousness grew obvious. Its way of sneaking into other drugs deepened the death count. Drug users were being sold cocaine or meth laced with fentanyl.  

In 2022, the legislature changed the law to make the possession of four or more grams of fentanyl a felony. However, the new law specified possession would only be a felony if the accused was “knowingly” carrying fentanyl — a difficult thing to prove, considering its presence as a seasoning in so many other drug types.  

Fentanyl overdose rates had been improving after peaking in late 2023 and had a brief reprieve in 2024. Them, from November 2024 to August 2025, they rose again.  

This new, second spike has led to massive human suffering. According to a report I co-wrote as CSI’s Public Safety Fellow, if Colorado’s overdose rates had fallen at the national average, there would have been 1,620 fewer deaths.  

Every avoidable human death is a tragedy. There is no way to put a cost to a human life’s value.  

There are, however, enormous economic consequences to this wave of drug-related deaths. The associated crime, violence, lost property, and time and energy spent by law enforcement, attorneys, case workers, and the judicial system cost the state heavily – previous cost of crime analyses by the Common Sense Institute have clearly outline that.  

The simple loss of life from fentanyl, however, is in a category of its own.  

Economists often use a metric known as the “Value of a Statistical Life” (VSL) to estimate the economic impact of premature death. While no specific dollar amount could ever appropriately quantify the value of life, this imperfect measure may help policymakers understand the economic benefit of reducing risks to human life. Using a VSL estimate of $13.4 million per life, the Common Sense Institute calculated the economic cost of Colorado’s excess fentanyl deaths.   

Those 1,620 excess deaths represent roughly $18.3 billion in lost economic value to Colorado’s economy.   

Clearly, this figure does not capture the devastation inflicted on families or addiction’s broader social costs. It simply reflects the lost productivity, earnings, and contributions those individuals would have made over their lifetimes had they not fallen victim to overdose.  

As long as demand for drugs and drug addiction remain high, the state will struggle with this trend. 

The drug laws passed since 2019 have mainly been concerned with how to funnel people to treatment programs without simply stacking drug offenders behind bars. The intention was clear: treat addiction as a health issue rather than a criminal one.   

The results, however, have been mixed, according to CSI’s analysis. During the period following the law’s passage, treatment admissions increased significantly. Overdose deaths continued rising, though. The data suggests that expanded treatment access didn’t necessarily correspond with a reduction in fentanyl deaths.  

That does not mean treatment programs are unimportant, of course. Addiction recovery services are a critical component of any effective drug response. According to the data, treatment alone may not be sufficient to stop fentanyl’s impact.   

The scale of the fentanyl crisis confirms that enforcement matters. Fentanyl is extraordinarily potent. According to the Drug Enforcement Administration, as little as two milligrams can be lethal depending on body size and tolerance. The quantities entering the United States are massive. Since October 2022, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has seized 63,286 pounds of fentanyl at the southwest border, about 28.7 billion milligrams. Even assuming a relatively low purity level of 15%, that amount represents enough fentanyl to deliver a lethal dose to roughly 2.2 billion people.   

The reality is that law enforcement is intercepting only a portion of the supply. As long as fentanyl continues flowing into communities, policymakers must consider how legal frameworks affect both the supply and demand for the drug.  

Colorado’s fentanyl penalties may be a contributor. For example, Texas, despite being a major entry point for drug trafficking, has seen synthetic opioid deaths fall by 27% since December 2024. Texas classifies fentanyl as a Schedule I substance and imposes stronger penalties for possession and distribution.  

While they attempt a compassionate response to the fentanyl crisis, Colorado’s laws may be allowing more drug trafficking than it believes. In 2025, legislators introduced a bill that would have removed this clause and strengthened penalties for possession. The proposal ultimately failed to pass.   

That decision may be worth reconsidering.  

When fentanyl is often mixed into other drugs, and when a lethal dose can be measured in grains of salt, legal loopholes around knowledge and intent may make enforcement far more difficult.   

No single policy will solve the fentanyl crisis. The factors driving overdose deaths include drug supply networks, addiction patterns, economic stress, and public health infrastructure.  

Colorado’s trajectory shows the state’s current drug policy suite is not producing results. Most of the country is moving toward fewer fentanyl deaths. Colorado is moving in the opposite direction. That alone should prompt a serious reassessment of the state’s approach.  

Treatment and prevention programs remain essential. But policymakers should also examine whether Colorado’s legal framework adequately deters possession, distribution and trafficking of one of the deadliest drugs ever produced.  

Strengthening penalties, particularly by revisiting the “knowing” clause in the fentanyl possession statute, may be one step toward restoring accountability and reducing supply.  

Paul Pazen is the former police chief of Denver and is the public safety fellow at the Common Sense Institute.