Snow returns to Colorado’s high country for the second weekend of February and the potential for 4-10 inches up north and 2-4 inches in the middle are high.

Arctic air mixing with good moisture levels early to mid next week will continue to pile snow up in the mountains, hopeful skiers and riders will delight in building back up the dismal snowpack, especially in the southern mountains.

A prolonged stormy pattern developing from Valentine’s Day Friday to President’s Day Monday is becoming more clear as well.

Recap:

Unfortunately, the quick shot of snow forecast for Wednesday didn’t really deliver much of anything to Colorado’s high country except high-level clouds passing by. Not even Steamboat received any snow.

On Thursday, skies cleared over much of Colorado ahead of a storm system moving onshore in northern California.

Temperatures around the ski areas and resorts were cooler with the National Weather Service in Boulder recording a high of 40 degrees at Copper Mountain, the NWS office in Grand Junction recording a high of 33 degrees at Aspen Highlands, and 37 degrees at Telluride.

Forecast:

On Friday, snow develops in the northern mountains after sunset and should pick up in intensity into overnight Saturday, making first chairs rather soft at ski areas and resorts north of Interstate 70.

Snow continues on Saturday, but is not as heavy during the day, yet it should ramp back up Saturday night through Sunday mid-morning.

Snowfall totals for Saturday morning are forecast to be between 4-10 inches in the northern mountains, 2-4 inches in the central mountains (mainly in Pitkin and Gunnison counties), and maybe a dusting in the northern San Juans if any snow falls at all.

The European model is forecasting more conservative snowfall totals across the state than the GFS and NWS Blend of Model models.

The GFS model shows noticeably more snow accumulations in the central mountains and around Eagle County (think 1.5 times as much snow), and the NWS Blend shows more snow along the Continental Divide west of Boulder, in the Elks around Aspen and in Eagle, Summit and southern Grand County (about 1.5 times as much snow as well).

Snowstorm grand totals by Sunday late morning are forecast to be between 8-12 inches in the northern mountains, between 6-10 inches in the central mountains, and between 1-3 inches in the northern side of the southern mountains.

The ECMWF:

The GFS:

The NWS Blend of Models:

Monday is trending toward sunny-ish in the morning, cloudy early afternoon, and snow developing by late afternoon, but this time the southern mountains are forecast to receive some snow.

Colorado’s Snowpack:

Two weeks ago, Colorado’s snowpack was at 89% of median average. One week ago, it was at 85%, but then some snow came in and pushed that percentage toward 90%.

However, a fast melt has been on since Feb. 3 and it currently is at 84% of the median average, with 8.5 inches of snow water equivalent locked up in the snow.

Long-term forecast:

Monday afternoon/evening snow is forecast to spread across the southern half of the state first via west winds for a quick shot of snow.

By Tuesday morning storm energy will have shifted back to focusing on the northern and central mountains as continued west-to-east zonal flow occurs.

While moisture and westerly winds funnel snow into Colorado, Arctic air will begin creeping southward into northeastern Colorado on Tuesday.

For Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday morning, snow will continue to fall across all three mountain zones.

However, the Arctic airmass pushing southward from Wyoming will create very rather cold days both on Tuesday and Wednesday, with sub-zero temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday night; Thursday morning could see the coldest temperatures of February.

Friday, Saturday, Feb. 15, and Sunday, Feb. 16 are trending toward the potential for a prolonged snow-storm event, with noticeable snowfall across all three mountain zones again.

Not all the models are in agreement yet with this forecast, but the chances are trending upward that at least moderate amounts will fall.  

Today’s (Feb. 8) 24-hour snow totals from Colorado resorts:

Arapahoe Basin – 6″

Aspen Highlands – 4″

Aspen Mountain – 2″

Beaver Creek – 6″

Breckenridge – 6″

Buttermilk – 1″

Cooper – 5″

Copper Mountain – 4″

Crested Butte – 0″

Echo Mountain – 1″, plus tubing

Eldora Mountain – 3″

Granby Ranch – 3″

Hesperus – Closed for the season

Howelsen Hill – 5″

Kendall Mountain – 0″

Keystone – 7″

Loveland – 4″

Monarch – 0″

Powderhorn – 1″

Purgatory – 0″

Silverton – 0″

Snowmass – 2″

Steamboat – 10″

Sunlight – 2″

Telluride – 0″

Vail – 9″

Winter Park – 5″

Wolf Creek – 0″