How about a mulligan?

OK, so my preseason College Football Playoff predictions were a little off. No, Penn State and Clemson won’t be playing for the national championship. LSU fired Brian Kelly and hired Lane Kiffin. The Big 12 didn’t get two teams in the bracket. Boise State won the Mountain West but wasn’t close to being one of the two Group of Five champions that made this year’s playoff.

We’ll do better next year. Promise.

Still, I picked Notre Dame as the first team to miss the field (bingo!) and I was all over Big 12 champion Texas Tech (nailed it!). I was also all over the fact this year in college football was wide open. It remains that way heading into the first round, which begins Friday with No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma and continues with three games Saturday. 

Let’s try this again and predict all four rounds:

First round

No. 9 Alabama over No. 8 Oklahoma

No. 7 Texas A&M over No. 10 Miami

No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 Tulane

No. 5 Oregon over No. 12 James Madison

Yes, the Crimson Tide should not be playing in this game. Not only is Alabama the first three-loss team to play for a national title, the manner in which it lost to Georgia in the SEC championship game should’ve been enough to bump it out of the field and keep Notre Dame in. But such is life, and ‘Bama is going to make a lot of people feel silly when it avenges losses to Oklahoma last season and this season.

The best game in the first round is Texas A&M vs. Miami. The Aggies were unbeaten up until their loss to rival Texas in the final week of the regular season, which also knocked them out of the SEC title game. That has given A&M plenty of time to rest up, though, and with Kyle Field as loud as it’s ever been, that will be the difference against a Hurricanes team that is representing the ACC in a disappointing season, one in which the conference champion, Duke, had no shot of making the CFP.

Quarterfinals

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 7 Texas A&M (Cotton Bowl)

No. 5 Oregon over No. 4 Texas Tech (Orange Bowl)

No. 1 Indiana over No. 9 Alabama (Rose Bowl)

No. 3 Georgia over No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl)

This is going to be the best round of the playoff. All eight teams could make a case they’re capable of winning the national championship and each contest should be exciting in its own right.

Texas A&M fans will invade AT&T Stadium and give the Aggies a strong home-field advantage against the defending national champions, but it won’t be enough against an Ohio State defense that is the best in the country.

Despite traveling all the way across the country for the Orange Bowl, Oregon will sneak past Texas Tech in a defensive battle. After the Red Raiders offense fails to build on an early lead, the Ducks get a few big plays from healthy wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart to steal a thriller in Miami.

The only blowout of this round will be in Pasadena. Unlike last year, the No. 1 seed will not be upset at the Rose Bowl. Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and Indiana dominate the Crimson Tide in a game that will feel more like an episode of the Twilight Zone for college football fans who grew up knowing the Hoosiers as a laughingstock in the sport.

In the nightcap on New Year’s Day, the Kiffin-less Rebels will give the Bulldogs a scare, but Georgia dominates the second half.

Semifinals

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 3 Georgia (Fiesta Bowl)

No. 5 Oregon over No. 1 Indiana (Peach Bowl)

The only thing standing in the way of a third straight national championship for the Big Ten is Georgia, the last non-Big Ten team to win the playoff. It will be a battle of the nation’s two best defenses, but the Buckeyes have Jeremiah Smith on offense and the Bulldogs don’t. After feeling snubbed for not winning the Biletnikoff Award, Ohio State’s star wide receiver takes over the game in the fourth quarter and gets his team back to the national title game.

In the other semifinal, we get a rematch of one of the season’s best games. Although the Hoosiers pulled off what was considered an upset at the time at Autzen Stadium, Indiana has gone on to look like the better team. That won’t be the case in the second meeting, though, as Dan Lanning’s team uses a complete team effort to pull off the win on a last-second field goal.

National Championship

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 5 Oregon

We have our second repeat champion of the decade. After Georgia did it in 2021 and 2022, Ohio State goes back-to-back after taking down Oregon in an epic rematch from last year’s Rose Bowl, where the Buckeyes dominated the then-No. 1 seed Ducks. The game is much closer this time around, but Ohio State’s championship pedigree shows up in the biggest moment.

The list: 5 players who will decide the College Football Playoff

1. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

There’s only one team that has allowed fewer than 10 points per game this season: Ohio State. At the center of the Buckeyes’ defense is linebacker Arvell Reese, who has enjoyed a breakout junior season with 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss under new coordinator Matt Patricia. If Ohio State repeats, Reese and the defense will be the biggest reason why.

2. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

No quarterback has more to gain over the next few weeks than Dante Moore. It’s not known whether he’ll declare for the NFL draft, but Moore is appreciated by many and would be a likely first-round pick if he does come out. And if the Oregon offense gets hot and goes on a run, Moore could work his way into the conversation for the No. 1 pick.

3. Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana

By now, you know the Hoosiers’ coach and quarterback. But it’s time you learn about Sarratt, as well. The James Madison transfer, who came to Indiana with Curt Cignetti, has been a touchdown machine this season with 12, despite missing multiple games. Now healthy, Sarratt at his best can be the most dangerous weapon in the playoff.

4. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia

Run on this Bulldogs defense at your own risk. While playing a tough schedule in the SEC, Georgia ranks in the top five in the country in rushing yards allowed per game, in large part due to the emergence of Allen, the team’s leading tackler who also finds his way into the backfield for sacks and drops into coverage at times. If the Dawgs are going to win a third national title this decade, it will be because of Allen and the defense.

5. Behren Morton, QB, Texas Tech

Everything suggests the Red Raiders should be taken seriously as a national championship contender. They’re No. 2 in the country in points per game and No. 3 in points per game allowed. But there’s something about the Texas Tech offense that hasn’t felt all that convincing. Still, Texas Tech is undefeated this season in games Behren Morton has played. If he can perform consistently against some of the country’s best defenses, he might lead his team to the semifinals and beyond.