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Avalanche setting the pace among familiar list of contenders at midway point of season | NHL Insider

With back-to-back regulation losses, it is time to ask the question.

What is wrong with the Colorado Avalanche?

Actually, it’s not. The Avalanche have just been so good this season that back-to-back losses is uncharted territory for them. And at the halfway point of the NHL season, they’ve dug such a chasm between themselves and the rest of the league that losing a few in a row barely puts a dent in things.

The Avalanche played game No. 42 on Tuesday in Tampa Bay, officially kicking off their second half. Every other team has played at least 41, so it’s time to reassess the NHL’s contenders. The Avalanche are at the top with a gap between the closest team, but they’re not the only contender.

The other contenders? They will sound a little familiar.

Avalanche

The gap between the Avalanche and the Stars and Wild is 11 points. The gap between the top team in the East and the worst team in the East is just 12 points. So yes, Colorado has built up quite a cushion for themselves atop the West and NHL.

The numbers are astounding. There’s no other way to put it. They had more points through 41 games than any NHL team over the past 50 years. They’ve scored 20 more goals than any other team and have allowed 15 fewer than the second-best defensive group. Their penalty kill is the best in the league.

Those numbers are all well and good, but will it matter at the end of the season? That remains to be seen. For the five other teams that got off to the hottest starts over the past 50 NHL seasons, it’s been all-or-nothing.

The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks and the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens both won the Stanley Cup. On the other end of the spectrum, you have the 2022-23 Boston Bruins, the 2008-09 San Jose Sharks and the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, all of whom failed to get out of the first round. Jared Bednar has said studying those situations is already in the back of his mind, but there’s too much season left to dig into it just yet.

If the Avalanche want to greatly reduce their odds of ending up in the latter group, fixing the power play must be the top priority. They’ve been so good outside of the power play that it hasn’t cost them games until last week. In a short playoff series, it could be the difference between heading home early or advancing.

Even with a subpar power play, it’s clear the Avalanche are the cream of the crop in the NHL. They have some injury adversity to overcome before the Olympics break, but they’ve put themselves in a great position to guarantee every playoff series starts at Ball Arena, where they have yet to lose in regulation.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The next-best team in the league might be the one that just took down Colorado. Tampa Bay’s possession numbers are great and, like Colorado, they can both score and defend. They’re top three in each category. Their best players are heating up. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov have recovered from slow starts (by their standards).

They’re also doing all of this without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, two of their best defensemen. And in net, they have one of the great equalizers in Andrei Vasilevsky. This is a dangerous group that could easily come out of the Eastern Conference.

Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) looks on against the San Jose Sharks during the second period of an NHL game Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, in San Jose, Calif. (AP Photo/Thien-An Truong)

Dallas Stars

Dallas has dropped six in a row, which was bound to happen eventually. They’re a bottom-five possession team that has the second-highest shooting percentage at even strength in the league. Those numbers usually aren’t supposed to go together, so the last six games might be a bit of “regression to the mean” for the Stars.

That being said, does anyone want to face this team in the playoffs? It’s a veteran group that always is a problem come April. Miro Heiskanen is a Norris Trophy candidate and Mikko Rantanen is humming along just fine in his first full season apart from Nathan MacKinnon. Rantanen sits sixth in the NHL in scoring. They’re also likely to add before the trade deadline, so doubt the Stars at your own peril.

Dallas Stars’ Mathew Dumba (3), Lian Bichsel, center, and Mikko Rantanen, right, celebrate after Bichsel scored against the Nashville Predators in the third period of an NHL game in Dallas, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Edmonton Oilers

For the third straight season, the Oilers slept through the first two months. It’s Jan. 7 and they have more regulation wins than every other team in the Pacific. Oh, and Connor McDavid has entered turbo mode with an absurd 39 points over his last 16 games. The team that has represented the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup final the last two years must be taken seriously again.

Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his hat trick goal against the Nashville Predators during the third period of an NHL game, in Edmonton, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)

Carolina Hurricanes

They’ve battled injuries to important players and still are tied with the Lightning atop the East with 55 points. It’s the same story this season as it is every year. Do they have the game-breakers necessary to get it done in the postseason, and will their goaltending hold up? Right now, they’re relying on a rookie in net. Perhaps this season will be different.

Minnesota Wild

Reasons to believe in the Wild? They have elite players in Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes and are as strong in net as any team in the league.

Reasons not to believe in them? They lack a top-flight center and, like the Stars, are a bottom-five possession team.

This is a good team in an NHL that is lacking good teams, but they’re right on the edge of being a contender or not. If Bill Guerin makes a deal to strengthen the team down the middle, that could make it a lot more clear.

Minnesota Wild left wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) and Los Angeles Kings defenseman Cody Ceci (5) battle for the puck during the first period of an NHL game, Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jessie Alcheh)

Teams on the outside looking in

Florida: They’re going to get Matthew Tkachuk back and there’s a chance they get Alex Barkov back at some point. If they get healthy, they’re as dangerous as any team out East, but it’s hard to put a team that isn’t in a playoff spot on the contender list.

Vegas: What the heck are they? They have only 13 regulation wins through 41 games and are being propped up by a whopping 12 loser points. Until they show otherwise, they’re not a contender.

Washington: Positive goal differential and only Tampa has more regulation wins out East. And yet it’s hard to truly buy them as a contender.

What I’m hearing

  • On Altitude Sports Radio Wednesday, Bednar confirmed Devon Toews has a muscle-related injury. He was a bit more cryptic when it came to Gabriel Landeskog’s status, but it’s clear Toews is expected back before the captain.
  • Parker Kelly has been consistent for the Avalanche whether he’s playing center or wing. “He’s been fantastic for us,” Bednar said. Kelly is set to break all his career highs, which makes the Avalanche getting ahead of things with a contract extension over the summer look all right.

What I’m seeing

  • Whether the New Jersey Devils fire someone after getting embarrassed by the Islanders on Tuesday, it won’t fix their biggest problem: they’re soft. Until they figure that out, they won’t go far.
  • Anaheim has lost nine of 10 and has fallen out of a playoff spot. Sure seems like things are lining up for either Jon Cooper or Jared Bednar to win their first Jack Adams Trophy.

What I’m thinking

  • Carolina fans sure don’t like Rantanen and made it known when he came to town this week, but is it his fault the GM traded for him before knowing if he wanted to stay there long term?
  • Right now, the three teams in the wild-card hunt out West are all located in California. As someone who covers a team likely to face a wild-card team, I’m OK with that.

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